ANALYSIS TOOL BOX

Decision Matrix

Rank a set of options against explicit, weighted criteria instead of judging them holistically. Define what “good” looks like per criterion, weight what the decision-maker actually cares about, score on a consistent scale, and document the judgment behind every rating — a transparent, defensible basis for a recommendation, with the analytic call still yours to make.

How this technique works
Start from ACH

About this technique

What is a decision matrix?

A decision matrix ranks a set of options against an explicit, weighted set of criteria. It comes from multi-criteria decision analysis and appears in Heuer and Pherson's Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis as a prioritization technique. You list the options, define the criteria, weight each criterion by importance, and score how well each option meets each one. Its strength is transparency: anyone can see why an option ranked where it did, and challenge a specific weight or score instead of the whole conclusion.

When to use it

Use a decision matrix when you have to choose among several options and the trade-offs are hard to hold in your head. Examples are ranking courses of action, comparing vendors or competitors, or deciding which explanation an assessment should lead with. It usually comes late in an analysis, after ACH has narrowed the hypotheses or a Key Assumptions Check has tested the framing.

How to use this tool

  1. State the decision question: what is being decided, and for whom.
  2. Add options, or import them from an ACH matrix.
  3. Add criteria and weight them. Define each criterion so it's scored consistently, and mark a weight as contested when people disagree.
  4. Choose a 1–5 or 1–10 scale and score criterion by criterion, comparing every option on one criterion before moving to the next.
  5. Add a rationale to each score. Scores on heavily weighted criteria without one are flagged.
  6. Read the ranked options. Options separated by less than 5% of the scale maximum are marked as a close call, meaning the matrix alone can't separate them.

Common pitfalls

  • Tuning the weights until your favorite wins. Set weights before you score.
  • Overlapping criteria, such as "cost" and "affordability," which count the same factor twice.
  • Trusting a narrow margin. A close call needs judgment, not a decimal point.

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