Standing Ovation Model

Will a group follow a few early movers? Define the actors, their private inclinations and conformity thresholds, and who can observe whom — then run the model many times to see how close the group is to a tipping point, which actors' moves matter most, and what to watch.

How this technique works

Key question (required)

Analyst

In this analysis, “standing” means…

Teaching Note

Each actor first decides on its own — it stands with probability equal to its private inclination. Then actors look at those they can observe and switch to conform when at least their threshold share is doing the opposite. Running the model many times shows how close the group is to a tipping point, which actors matter because they are highly visible (the front-row effect), and whether a consensus would be independent judgment or a fragile cascade.

Start from a setup

All setups are fictional and their numbers illustrative. Loading one replaces the current scenarios and comments; saved versions are kept.

Scenarios

Model

Default conformity threshold

Used for every actor without its own threshold.

Actors

Actor	Group	Private inclination	Threshold	Status	Rationale & source
					Announced suspension on 2 Sep; already moved.
					Announced suspension on 4 Sep; already moved.
					Largest economy; rarely follows others. Fleet modernization favors staying in.
					Second-largest economy; domestic fishing lobby split. Watches Belmora above all.
					Quota dispute unresolved since last season.
					Coastal elections in November raise political cost of staying in.
					Small state; historically votes with Belmora.
					Small state; depends on Belmora port access.
					Fleet heavily exposed to the shared stocks.
					Treaty partner of Arvenia and Dalmar.
					Benefits most from joint enforcement.
					Hosts the secretariat; reputational stake in the agreement.

Inclination: the chance the actor stands on its own judgment (L 0.1 · M 0.3 · H 0.6). Threshold: share of observed actors who must be doing the opposite before it switches — blank uses the default (0.6).

Who observes whom

Observer ↓ watches →													Sees
													4
													4
													1
													1
													4
													4
													3
													4
													5
													4
													4
													3
Seen by	2	2	11	11	2	2	1	2	2	3	2	1

Rows are observers, columns are the actors they watch; asymmetry is allowed. Click a column name to make everyone watch that actor (e.g. a shared broadcaster); click a row name to let that actor watch everyone. Actors seen by many are the “front row.”

Dynamics

Updating rule

Each round, actors update one at a time in a fresh random order, each seeing the moves made before theirs.

Can actors reverse?

Two-way: standing actors sit back down when enough of those they see are seated (Miller & Page). One-way suits irreversible moves like withdrawals or resignations.

Rounds per run

Runs stop early once nothing changes (no noise).

Noise per round

Chance a free actor flips for reasons outside the model.

Full cascade at

7 or more of 12 standing (≥ 58%)

Fizzle at or below

3 or fewer of 12 standing (≤ 25%)

Assumptions and rationale

Every parameter is an analyst judgment. Record why you chose it, where it came from, and — where one exists — the Key Assumptions Check row it rests on.

Cascade and fizzle levels

Cascade ≥ 58%; fizzle ≤ 25%